Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
